In light of a significant victory for Grayscale over federal regulators, Bloomberg analysts forecast a brighter future for spot Bitcoin ETFs. By year’s end, the approval odds are steadily increasing.
Shift in Probabilities: A Closer Look
In a detailed analysis, Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF expert, shared his insights on August 30 via X. The likelihood, he says, has jumped from 65% to a promising 75%. What sparked this adjustment? The United States Court of Appeals Circuit’s definitive and unanimous decision in a recent high-profile case.
“The court’s unanimous rejection of the SEC’s stance is noteworthy,” noted Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein. Their independent commentary on August 30 shed light on the SEC’s looming challenges. “With looming deadlines, it will be tough for the agency to uphold further denials,” they elaborated.
Seyffart, in another individual post, was more forward-looking. His projections suggest a near-certain approval by the fourth quarter of 2024, with chances reaching 95%.
According to Balchunas, the SEC‘s recent public and legal arenas setbacks make further denials “politically unfeasible.”
Upcoming Deadlines: Spotlight on Bitcoin Spot ETF Players
An intense week lies ahead for the crypto world. Seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are set to face their “initial deadline” by the SEC. Key players include Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.
Balchunas candidly expressed his expectations regarding the SEC’s possible moves. While a delay in decisions on the impending Bitcoin spot ETF applications wouldn’t shock him, there’s another potential scenario. Balchunas mused that we might just be in for a surprise, waking up to an all-in-one approval by the SEC.
The landscape for Bitcoin spot ETFs is shifting, and all signs point to a more favorable environment. With analysts like Balchunas optimistic about the future, the crypto world watches and waits. However, nothing is set in stone in this industry. Surprises lurk around every corner and setbacks are par for the course.
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